Carlos Mulas-Granados
Director de la Fundación Ideas y profesor de Economía de la Universidad Complutense
El acuerdo alcanzado por el Consejo Europeo del pasado 9 de diciembre es un paso en la buena dirección, pero serán necesarios pactos futuros para alcanzar una estructura sólida y duradera de gobernanza económica. Hasta que se den, la crisis no se superará de forma definitiva.
... in http://blogs.publico.es/dominiopublico/
De momento se ha reforzado el compromiso colectivo con la austeridad y se ha dado un paso más en la soberanía fiscal compartida, ya que los estados miembros podrán vigilarse mutuamente, enmendarse los presupuestos los unos a los otros e imponerse sanciones más rápidas y contundentes en situaciones de incumplimiento.
Ahora, los mercados ya tienen una prueba más de que, a medio plazo, las deudas soberanas tienen menos riesgo de impago, porque todos se han comprometido a no gastar más de lo que recauden. Sin embargo, los operadores querrán saber si aún pueden seguir obteniendo dinero con la especulación en los mercados secundarios de deuda, y aquí el papel del BCE (al que no se menciona en el acuerdo) sigue siendo fundamental. Por las palabras de Merkel parece que la parte explícita del pacto fiscal con Francia se da por superada y la parte implícita (la mayor implicación del BCE para relajar las primas de riesgo) se debe abrir camino en cuanto regrese la volatilidad.
Hay, sin embargo, asignaturas importantes aún pendientes. En primer lugar, Europa sigue sin estrategia colectiva para impulsar el crecimiento y recuperar el empleo, por lo que los mercados seguirán inquietos. Las próximas perspectivas financieras pueden ser un buen momento para plantearse proyectos europeos de calado, pero la mayoría conservadora que domina el continente no parece entender que el sector público tiene un papel que jugar para encender la mecha de la reactivación y animar a un sector privado deprimido.
En segundo lugar, aunque Merkel y Sarkozy hayan bautizado el reciente acuerdo como un paso decisivo hacia la unión fiscal, aún queda mucho. Si la unión monetaria suponía transferir a Fráncfort la capacidad de emitir moneda, fijar los tipos de interés y los tipos de cambio, la unión fiscal (si se produce) debería suponer ceder a Bruselas la capacidad para marcar el tono de la política fiscal para toda la UE, dotarla de un presupuesto federal para grandes proyectos que aumenten la competitividad de la economía europea y refuercen la convergencia regional; también debería implicar darle capacidad para armonizar los impuestos nacionales y homogeneizar las grandes partidas de gasto de cada Estado. Y por último, la unión fiscal verdadera supondría transformar el actual Fondo de Rescate en un Tesoro Europeo con capacidad para emitir eurobonos.
En todo caso, lo más preocupante de los acuerdos no es que se estén quedando cortos, sino el modo en que se están produciendo. Son iniciativas alemanas, que Francia acomoda a sus preferencias, y que luego el eje franco-alemán coloca al resto de socios sin apenas debate. La debilidad de Italia y España, y el aislamiento de Reino Unido, impiden la existencia de un contrapeso. Al mismo tiempo, el papel de la Comisión Europea está siendo minimizado (los líderes han ignorado las propuestas que realizó Barroso para mejorar la estructura institucional del euro e introducir eurobonos). Y la posición del presidente del Consejo, Van Rompuy, está resultando confusa, porque no termina de ser el muñidor de los acuerdos intergubernamentales del Consejo y tampoco puede reemplazar a Barroso ni a la Comisión como promotores de la integración europea por encima de los intereses de los estados-nación. A todo esto se ha añadido la dolorosa irrelevancia del Parlamento europeo, lo que ahonda la sensación ciudadana de déficit democrático creciente.
Los progresistas deben situar sus propuestas también en ese terreno.
No se trata sólo de reclamar políticas de crecimiento que superen la obsesión por la austeridad. Ni de abogar sólo por nuevas instituciones europeas como el Tesoro y los eurobonos, o pedir un papel más activo del BCE. Todo eso es necesario, pero si continúan los pasos hacia la supranacionalización de las políticas fiscales, deben también darse pasos hacia la europeización de la política.
Tras los acuerdos del pasado fin de semana, no sería extraño que los ciudadanos de Italia o Grecia decidieran rechazar la autoridad de cualquier dirigente extranjero que en virtud del pacto intentara enmendarles sus cuentas públicas. Lo rechazarían porque no lo han votado y no pueden hacerles democráticamente responsables. Y si la decisión de vigilar y enmendar los presupuestos de todos se deja en manos de la Comisión Europea (como debería ser), entonces esa Comisión debería rendir cuentas ante los ciudadanos europeos por los cauces democráticos habituales. Para ello, habría que cambiar también los tratados no sólo para reforzar la austeridad, sino también la democracia. De esta forma, el Parlamento europeo que surgiera de las urnas en 2014 debería ser el resultado de una confrontación de candidaturas supranacionales a nivel europeo que terminara designando al presidente y los miembros de la próxima Comisión Europea.
Los padres fundadores de la UE ya divisaron ese camino: primero la Unión Aduanera, luego el Mercado Único, más tarde la Unión Monetaria, de ahí a la Unión Fiscal, y finalmente la Unión Política con mecanismos democráticos donde se dirimieran las cuestiones del nivel europeo de la misma forma que se deciden las locales en los parlamentos nacionales. El recorrido está marcado; atrevámonos a recorrerlo.
.... I keep thinking I'll be stolen,
with rule of law,
without any right,
space occupied by money in bard,
global movement of what is intended,
some with everything
others with nothing,
Lord of the World
different people,
level agenda,
more gains respite,
wheel of fortune, hidden treasures,
BENCHES manipulated,
How many mistakes,
groups skew,
secret pork,
as I twist,
also reduced,
poverty target, the vacant stare,
few think of "sovereignty"
collecting funds for whom little has
making sweep,
chatter aimlessly
doing magic
chief magistrate,
I am with this,
unconstitutional,
making confiscation
word thinner,
law as a rule,
alarvidade penalty,
s'entorna broth,
revolt in the right,
s'entorta letter,
situation, despair,
stark contrast,
fluidity to the banking,
being passive,
no dividends,
A wasting asset,
withdrawing to the poorest,
median, say
c'o approval of the Queen,
proceeding as a king,
liberal in money,
vassal of the same,
negligence, pretext,
tail at random,
much further,
no exhaust, vortex,
stealing a lot,
also confiscated
Right forgotten
attitude, contempt,
busy, warrant,
CRISIS huge
gives you and gives you the same,
reducing costs,
protecting some
agglutinated fears,
forces d'awe,
creators of scares,
shelters, walkways,
many wanderings,
backs as good,
appropriate laws,
purposes of profit,
giving them a taste,
making them the way,
incompetent service,
no juice, no service,
thieves and such,
illegal seizure,
a state without state
sold, exchanged,
service managers,
without grace, justice,
Kapiti to the top,
to start,
diverting, stealing,
plugging holes,
I pay taxes,
thousands of millions,
protecting galifões,
more patriotic figures,
HIDDEN money !!!... Sherpas !!!...
... bunch of freaks
in the realm of the least equal,
vernacular of fear,
Our very characteristic,
when we came in, makes a dent,
remedy that does not satisfy
gains are gains,
unreasonable, without screening,
secret gestures, so ugly,
scam with many defects
plebeianism the precept,
aphorisms that are suddenly
illiterate people,
tack,
some with very ... others, with nothing
disparate causing disgust,
hitch, joke, blinkers,
wrapped with floral games,
reams of foolish words,
obstinate in their recreation,
speak with reverie,
earn contempt of tack,
not mustered,
neglected,
confused, uninterested,
with flowery metaphors,
neat rhymes,
rhymed,
inventive strictly speaking,
in such great impudence,
imagination more to the astral
not being less
being equal,
Unknown universe
ethereal who are lost,
high that trample,
insult,
when they are fighting, when they fight,
by a void that has dragged on,
program that is not ours,
is imposed,
when, the other opposes,
either dies,
sovereignty that we have lost,
Democracy does not exist,
floral games,
for MORE,
tack on high, few people,
does not warm, not cool,
huge sum of money that we lack,
sad race,
populace,
so illiterate rabble,
depends on who gives,
forgotten by those HERE,
trying to copy the LA,
swearing, mission,
fulfill his promise,
how much undone,
illusion,
like what they were,
Here lies,
whatever,
being there, being here,
unable drastic behavior,
refuge in the IMF,
"Faces" of other places,
representatives of clusters,
vortices,
taking gains, annuities,
threatening, bludgeon brave
in the portfolio that is small,
screaming their flag,
playing the pity,
when the soul is paper,
ream of securities or funds,
yellow metal bars
if esfanicam as bran,
assets that are illusion,
million or so,
class that demystifies,
prostrate, downgrades,
when they suggest, ask forgiveness,
stir another bogeyman,
People who wash in the river,
tans, the twitching,
clubítico, intent,
bunch of abnormal,
in the realm of the least equal,
seduced by Kapiti,
plenty that you do not.
promise to lose sight of
creation, apparent wealth,
making head, making the mind,
playing with disgruntled
mirage, a ghost,
Paradise is not risk
good time, great snack,
Virgin or Cayman Island,
Luxembourg, animation,
London financial, since then,
City near you,
IMF aid,
absences, enormous fears,
unbridled greed, screening,
great secrets,
FEARS !!!... Sherpas !!!...
... Quiet in the place it occupies,
and worries, while enjoying,
man enjoying success guaranteed
unfurled in the wind,
without notice and groan,
a broken,
simple flag that you walk,
observing the wretched, the oppressed,
as a panacea,
in its regular route,
measured in words, partnerships and affordable !!!...
... Trough full of saliva that creates starving mouths,
will so great food in sight,
important works, his great services,
innocent creatures, amorphous, angelic,
immersed in shadows, so shadows,
smoke so dense that leave no see
hungry, they are swept by rival gangs,
neglected lives, they want change, sad thistles,
leaving more with their capital,
... Quiet in the place it occupies,
and worries, while enjoying,
they are entertained, a guess, opine position,
look for a place, grab share, higher position,
create wealth, wonders and ecstasies, intense distrust,
clinging to the good bit, firm, joined,
do not think, even in a sort,
unemployed, sick, old man, a future that is,
risk youth who has just run its course, curriculum that has
turns, to search walled door is closed,
deals with the bag, looking way off alone,
turns out to be anything, anyone, never have,
goes with it, a friend who has, single neighbor
man enjoying success guaranteed
unfurled in the wind,
without notice and groan,
voracious, eager, pushing, trampling,
excess power, give circus, give tear, almost bedeviling,
throw claptrap, call softly, hit back,
perfect smiles, like the little bodies, almost folded hands
devour time, appeal to the laws, make proposals,
cooking projects, copyright, defects, interests, sauces,
trample suddenly merciless beasts, roll their eyes,
greedy, insane, filled the bowl,
a broken,
simple flag that you walk,
observing the wretched, the oppressed,
are bodies, are pigs,
hawks in disguise, servants sometimes little dogs on a leash,
strategies with tremendous tunnels and bridges, crossings so crooked,
deceptions, treacheries, deceptions, betrayals,
negligence, nonsense strikes, populations,
as medicine,
in its regular route,
measured in words, frugal and modest,
trough so fed up, pigs as relays, which do not provide services,
shave the bottom, shamelessly devour what they are giving,
ignore what they are, nevertheless, there remain,
whirlwind insensitive corner so sad
important works, bent, altar, religion, their worship,
those who plot, which they call, cheat, sticking, resist,
Table ghastly, wheel spinning, hidden powers ... !!!... Sherpas !!!...
... I saw the old miserable pass,
continues passing
more miserable, older,
just the addict, almost skin and bone,
skeletal remains,
more over, drugged,
the prostitute who sells on the street,
continues on the street,
almost naked,
it still sells, it is still a prostitute,
the unemployed, aimless, confused,
still erect,
no money,
dark, uncertain, unemployed,
... The taxpayer, the middle class over,
will be extinct,
class that is lower
unlucky life,
continues to pay taxes,
great disappointment,
the rich type that appears on television,
increasingly rich,
... increasingly on television,
will smiling, appearing, speaking,
lined, with illusion,
media, applauded,
being clumsy,
revered by political
... The child without a penny,
poor, without parents, abandoned
was referred to the institution,
kind of prison
remains poor, helpless,
puppet, puppet show,
sometimes fun,
news that you throw,
without parents,
as other more
... Politician from any quarter,
extravagant con man,
in power, in opposition,
Table degrading
when it does, unable,
because the mind,
increasingly more interested in him,
only,
the car sleek, beautiful skin,
conserved,
well placed,
... The emigrant who leaves the country,
search output, looking for life
no longer account for the statistical
because it is not,
reduces the number increases confidence,
boasting how
when it says,
achievement increases when they comment,
intend to,
seduction with intent,
money that comes
who knows,
... That the purchase did not, since if it does not,
poor guy,
girl who spike,
whatever,
music needs,
concrete, concise,
laugh at the time,
let's go,
sorrows that arise under the carpet
like a rocket,
fast gesture
love, affection,
pure plaything,
packages, gagging,
dark future,
how little pride,
... Container of doom at the door of the supermarket,
littered with debris, leftovers,
how many handouts,
past the deadline that lie outside
tear that weeps
the beholder, they bemoaned,
shadows of the night, hunger and misery,
remnants are also
who has nothing,
hanging, searching greedy,
and garbage bags,
how much it hurts,
low secrets,
sad messages,
sick society
passing time,
no longer cries, leaves,
is modified, accepted ... indifferent,
... The sick, the helpless, dependent,
care and solicitude,
family that is striving
that meets any failure,
brave people,
arranges power, pulling hair,
processed or,
invents knowledge,
turns obstacles, the path,
love and affection,
swears softly,
suffers the double,
can be silent,
... The distressed, the victim of the system,
drink intake,
of addiction that entertains,
remains the same,
bones on the floor,
wander, asking,
steals, sometimes
enjoy what you give,
airtight, suffered,
in solitude
... will idiotic smiling
... One more Christmas, promise fallen
life that creeps, surrendered life,
so like continuity,
routine that installs, insists,
ills worsen, folly thick,
hypocrisies thousand
song on vinyl,
cried the past,
This bitter,
future here so close,
black, complicated, uncertain ... !!!... Sherpas !!!...
